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Creators/Authors contains: "Öztürk, Doğacan"

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  1. Ground-based magnetometers used to measure magnetic fields on the Earth’s surface (B) have played a central role in the development of Heliophysics research for more than a century. These versatile instruments have been adapted to study everything from polar cap dynamics to the equatorial electrojet, from solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling to real-time monitoring of space weather impacts on power grids. Due to their low costs and relatively straightforward operational procedures, these instruments have been deployed in large numbers in support of Heliophysics education and citizen science activities. They are also widely used in Heliophysics research internationally and more broadly in the geosciences, lending themselves to international and interdisciplinary collaborations; for example, ground-based electrometers collocated with magnetometers provide important information on the inductive coupling of external magnetic fields to the Earth’s interior through the induced electric field (E). The purpose of this white paper is to (1) summarize present ground-based magnetometer infrastructure, with a focus on US-based activities, (2) summarize research that is needed to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of B variations, (3) describe the infrastructure and policies needed to support this research and improve space weather models and nowcasts/forecasts. We emphasize a strategic shift to proactively identify operational efficiencies and engage all stakeholders who need B and E to work together to intelligently design new coverage and instrumentation requirements. 
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  2. Vishniac, E; Muench, A (Ed.)
    Models for space weather forecasting will never be complete/valid without accounting for inter-hemispheric asymmetries in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. This whitepaper is a strategic vision for understanding these asymmetries from a global perspective of geospace research and space weather monitoring, including current states, future challenges, and potential solutions. 
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  3. During periods of rapidly changing geomagnetic conditions electric fields form within the Earth’s surface and induce currents known as geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), which interact with unprotected electrical systems our society relies on. In this study, we train multi-variate Long-Short Term Memory neural networks to predict magnitude of north-south component of the geomagnetic field (| B N |) at multiple ground magnetometer stations across Alaska provided by the SuperMAG database with a future goal of predicting geomagnetic field disturbances. Each neural network is driven by solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field inputs from the NASA OMNI database spanning from 2000–2015 and is fine tuned for each station to maximize the effectiveness in predicting | B N |. The neural networks are then compared against multivariate linear regression models driven with the same inputs at each station using Heidke skill scores with thresholds at the 50, 75, 85, and 99 percentiles for | B N |. The neural network models show significant increases over the linear regression models for | B N | thresholds. We also calculate the Heidke skill scores for d| B N |/dt by deriving d| B N |/dt from | B N | predictions. However, neural network models do not show clear outperformance compared to the linear regression models. To retain the sign information and thus predict B N instead of | B N |, a secondary so-called polarity model is utilized. The polarity model is run in tandem with the neural networks predicting geomagnetic field in a coupled model approach and results in a high correlation between predicted and observed values for all stations. We find this model a promising starting point for a machine learned geomagnetic field model to be expanded upon through increased output time history and fast turnaround times. 
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